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针对我国东北地区高纬高寒特性，研究极端条件下电-气-热多能耦合系统在风险场景中的安全响应与调控。首先，分析各能流系统组成，挖掘域内灵活资源，以提升其参与多能流交互的能力。其次，考虑极端条件提出风险抵御体系，构建风险界定判据划分源荷侧风险类型，利用风险辨识指标探寻网侧薄弱环节，依据保供状态制定风险保供策略。然后，搭建灵活协同层化模型，从风险评估、灵活抵御、供电稳定及经济运行层面对系统运行进行调控与评估。最后，以东北和山东地区实际系统为对象，分析多种方案运行效果，评价其稳定性、灵活性、经济性及低碳性等效益。结果表明，发掘灵活资源可以提升系统对极端条件的抵御能力，两种典型风险场景中系统安全性指标分别改善0.72、0.43个百分点，灵活性分别提升4.83、4.90个百分点；同时，低碳单元参与调控使系统风险性进一步分别降低1.85、8.93个百分点，验证了基于风险抵御体系的层化模型能有效降低供需失衡风险对系统的影响。
Abstract：Aiming at the characteristics of high latitude and severe cold climate in Northeast China,the safety response and regulation of an electric-gas-heat multi-energy coupling system in risk scenarios under extreme conditions are studied.Firstly,the composition of each energy flow system is analyzed,and the flexible resources in the domain are mined to enhance their ability to participate in multi-energy flow interaction.Secondly,considering the extreme conditions,a risk mitigation system is proposed. A risk definition criterion is constructed to categorize the risk types on both the source and load sides,the risk identification index is used to explore the weak links of the network side,and the risk guarantee strategy is formulated according to the supply guarantee state.Then,a flexible collaborative layering model is built to regulate and evaluate the system operation from the aspects of risk assessment,flexible resistance,power supply stability and economic operation.Finally,taking the actual systems in Northeast China and Shandong Province as the objects of study,the operation effect of various schemes is analyzed,and the benefits of stability,flexibility,economy and low carbon are evaluated.The results show that the exploration of flexible resources can improve the system's ability to resist extreme conditions.In the two typical risk scenarios,the system's security indicators are improved by 0.72 and 0.43 percentage points,respectively,and the flexibility is improved by 4.83 and4.90 percentage points,respectively.At the same time,the participation of low-carbon units in regulation further reduces the system's risk by 1.85 and 8.93 percentage points,respectively,which verifies that the hierarchical model based on the risk mitigation system can effectively reduce the impact of supply and demand imbalance risks on the system.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.20097/j.cnki.issn1007-9904.240439
中图分类号:TM73
引用信息:
[1]何荣凯,李万信,唐华,等.考虑灵活资源参与的多能耦合系统风险响应与调控[J].山东电力技术,2025,52(11):13-32.DOI:10.20097/j.cnki.issn1007-9904.240439.
基金信息:
国网山东省电力公司科技项目“用户灵活性资源挖掘与协同技术研究”（520611240003）~~